Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (1052.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.35 - $23.39$16.81
Multi-Stage$21.34 - $23.43$22.37
Blended Fair Value$19.59
Current Price$3.38
Upside479.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.34%1.66%0.250.230.440.220.190.370.320.290.250.23
YoY Growth--10.09%-48.27%96.86%19.57%-49.05%16.81%9.36%17.77%6.36%7.87%
Dividend Yield--6.96%5.94%11.80%5.98%4.23%5.96%6.06%6.05%5.64%5.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,355.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)848.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)507.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)271.15169.47101.68
Cash Retained (M)507.00507.00507.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-271.15-169.47-101.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)235.85337.53405.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,673.161,673.161,673.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.200.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.200.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate0.91%1.91%2.91%
Fair Value$12.35$16.81$23.39
Upside / Downside265.33%397.43%592.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,355.751,381.711,408.161,435.121,462.601,490.601,535.32
Payout Ratio62.60%68.08%73.56%79.04%84.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)848.75940.711,035.881,134.341,236.201,341.541,420.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate0.91%1.91%2.91%
Year 1 PV (M)877.00885.69894.38
Year 2 PV (M)900.31918.24936.35
Year 3 PV (M)919.12946.71974.86
Year 4 PV (M)933.81971.381,010.07
Year 5 PV (M)944.75992.501,042.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,133.3432,706.7734,343.19
Equity Value (M)35,708.3337,421.2939,201.00
Shares Outstanding (M)1,673.161,673.161,673.16
Fair Value$21.34$22.37$23.43
Upside / Downside531.41%561.70%593.17%

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