DDM Analysis: 0QYY.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.79 - $31.59	$27.21
Multi-Stage	$43.42 - $47.87	$45.60
Blended Fair Value	$36.41
Current Price	$27.90
Upside	30.49%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-17.40%	-9.16%	0.74	0.78	0.75	0.75	0.55	1.91	1.98	2.03	2.03	2.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.28%	3.36%	0.82%	35.75%	-71.30%	-3.49%	-2.40%	-0.18%	1.23%	4.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.91%	1.78%	1.98%	1.91%	1.50%	10.67%	5.36%	4.83%	3.38%	4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	501.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	88.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	413.09

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	100.23	62.64	37.59
Cash Retained (M)	413.09	413.09	413.09
(-) Cash Required (M)	-100.23	-62.64	-37.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	312.86	350.45	375.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	124.03	124.03	124.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.52	2.83	3.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.71	0.71	0.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.52	2.83	3.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.23	3.54	3.74
WACC / Discount Rate	8.58%	8.58%	8.58%
Growth Rate	-4.90%	-3.90%	-2.90%
Fair Value	$22.79	$27.21	$31.59
Upside / Downside	-18.31%	-2.48%	13.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	501.15	481.58	462.79	444.72	427.36	410.68	423.00
Payout Ratio	17.57%	32.06%	46.54%	61.03%	75.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	88.06	154.38	215.39	271.41	322.72	369.61	391.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.58%	8.58%	8.58%
Growth Rate	-4.90%	-3.90%	-2.90%
Year 1 PV (M)	140.70	142.18	143.66
Year 2 PV (M)	178.90	182.69	186.51
Year 3 PV (M)	205.45	212.00	218.68
Year 4 PV (M)	222.64	232.15	241.96
Year 5 PV (M)	232.39	244.86	257.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,405.90	4,642.47	4,889.11
Equity Value (M)	5,385.97	5,656.35	5,937.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	124.03	124.03	124.03
Fair Value	$43.42	$45.60	$47.87
Upside / Downside	55.64%	63.46%	71.59%

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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (0QYY.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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