Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

The Mosaic Company (0K3B.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.64 - $60.77$48.78
Multi-Stage$58.75 - $64.52$61.58
Blended Fair Value$55.18
Current Price$34.68
Upside59.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.14%-3.40%0.851.100.620.330.240.210.120.661.211.21
YoY Growth---23.01%77.85%90.65%36.81%12.80%74.55%-81.72%-45.31%0.10%0.58%
Dividend Yield--3.15%3.40%1.35%0.49%0.75%1.95%0.43%2.72%4.14%4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,229.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)277.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)952.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.84153.6592.19
Cash Retained (M)952.20952.20952.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.84-153.65-92.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)706.36798.55860.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)318.65318.65318.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.512.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.512.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.093.383.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$38.64$48.78$60.77
Upside / Downside11.41%40.67%75.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,229.201,242.441,255.821,269.351,283.031,296.851,335.75
Payout Ratio22.53%36.03%49.52%63.01%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)277.00447.63621.90799.87981.601,167.161,235.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)410.10414.20418.30
Year 2 PV (M)522.00532.48543.07
Year 3 PV (M)615.09633.72652.71
Year 4 PV (M)691.57719.62748.53
Year 5 PV (M)753.36791.76831.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,728.0216,529.6817,363.70
Equity Value (M)18,720.1419,621.4620,558.01
Shares Outstanding (M)318.65318.65318.65
Fair Value$58.75$61.58$64.52
Upside / Downside69.40%77.56%86.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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