DDM Analysis: 0HRJ.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.40 - $41.23	$30.16
Multi-Stage	$28.83 - $31.61	$30.20
Blended Fair Value	$30.18
Current Price	$35.51
Upside	-15.02%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.04%	3.99%	0.49	0.47	0.45	0.44	0.42	0.40	0.40	0.38	0.36	0.36
YoY Growth	-	-	5.44%	3.52%	1.55%	5.27%	4.46%	1.60%	6.07%	4.12%	-0.87%	9.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.67%	1.27%	1.51%	1.19%	1.31%	2.12%	1.56%	2.02%	2.32%	4.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,881.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	960.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,921.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	576.20	360.13	216.08
Cash Retained (M)	1,921.00	1,921.00	1,921.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-576.20	-360.13	-216.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,344.80	1,560.88	1,704.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,887.25	1,887.25	1,887.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.83	0.90
LTM Dividend per Share	0.51	0.51	0.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.83	0.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.22	1.34	1.41
WACC / Discount Rate	7.55%	7.55%	7.55%
Growth Rate	1.99%	2.99%	3.99%
Fair Value	$22.40	$30.16	$41.23
Upside / Downside	-36.93%	-15.07%	16.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,881.00	2,967.08	3,055.74	3,147.05	3,241.08	3,337.92	3,438.06
Payout Ratio	33.32%	44.66%	55.99%	67.33%	78.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	960.00	1,325.02	1,711.00	2,118.87	2,549.57	3,004.13	3,180.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.55%	7.55%	7.55%
Growth Rate	1.99%	2.99%	3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,220.05	1,232.01	1,243.97
Year 2 PV (M)	1,450.63	1,479.22	1,508.09
Year 3 PV (M)	1,654.11	1,703.25	1,753.34
Year 4 PV (M)	1,832.66	1,905.60	1,980.70
Year 5 PV (M)	1,988.32	2,087.73	2,191.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	46,264.89	48,577.96	50,982.63
Equity Value (M)	54,410.67	56,985.77	59,659.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,887.25	1,887.25	1,887.25
Fair Value	$28.83	$30.20	$31.61
Upside / Downside	-18.81%	-14.97%	-10.98%

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CSX Corporation (0HRJ.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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