DDM Analysis: 0HJO.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$166.93 - $390.47	$245.17
Multi-Stage	$193.53 - $211.73	$202.46
Blended Fair Value	$223.81
Current Price	$193.17
Upside	15.86%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.76%	4.94%	6.73	6.45	6.22	6.21	6.18	5.87	5.63	5.40	5.08	4.58
YoY Growth	-	-	4.25%	3.72%	0.14%	0.58%	5.19%	4.27%	4.22%	6.32%	10.91%	10.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.13%	3.56%	3.70%	2.50%	3.35%	3.99%	2.81%	3.29%	2.77%	2.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,168.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	984.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	184.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	233.73	146.08	87.65
Cash Retained (M)	184.00	184.00	184.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-233.73	-146.08	-87.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-49.73	37.92	96.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	143.00	143.00	143.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.35	0.27	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	6.89	6.89	6.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.35	0.27	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.54	7.15	7.56
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%	6.98%	6.98%
Growth Rate	2.94%	3.94%	4.94%
Fair Value	$166.93	$245.17	$390.47
Upside / Downside	-13.58%	26.92%	102.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,168.66	1,214.76	1,262.68	1,312.49	1,364.27	1,418.09	1,460.63
Payout Ratio	84.26%	85.40%	86.55%	87.70%	88.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	984.66	1,037.46	1,092.89	1,151.08	1,212.17	1,276.28	1,351.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%	6.98%	6.98%
Growth Rate	2.94%	3.94%	4.94%
Year 1 PV (M)	960.47	969.80	979.13
Year 2 PV (M)	936.71	954.99	973.46
Year 3 PV (M)	913.37	940.25	967.64
Year 4 PV (M)	890.46	925.57	961.70
Year 5 PV (M)	867.98	910.97	955.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	23,106.97	24,251.29	25,440.50
Equity Value (M)	27,675.96	28,952.86	30,278.07
Shares Outstanding (M)	143.00	143.00	143.00
Fair Value	$193.53	$202.46	$211.73
Upside / Downside	0.19%	4.81%	9.61%

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AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (0HJO.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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