Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AEON Credit Service (Asia) Company Limited (0900.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.88 - $19.81$15.38
Multi-Stage$22.37 - $24.59$23.46
Blended Fair Value$19.42
Current Price$6.35
Upside205.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.76%2.92%0.480.460.440.400.440.440.440.400.360.36
YoY Growth--4.35%4.55%10.00%-9.09%0.00%0.00%10.00%11.11%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.56%7.63%8.38%7.66%8.48%8.27%5.97%6.11%6.02%6.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)426.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)225.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.3153.3231.99
Cash Retained (M)225.54225.54225.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.31-53.32-31.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)140.23172.22193.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.75418.75418.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.410.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.410.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.24%0.76%1.76%
Fair Value$11.88$15.38$19.81
Upside / Downside87.14%142.13%211.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)426.55429.77433.02436.29439.59442.91456.20
Payout Ratio47.12%55.70%64.27%72.85%81.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.01239.38278.32317.84357.93398.62421.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.24%0.76%1.76%
Year 1 PV (M)222.34224.57226.80
Year 2 PV (M)240.10244.94249.83
Year 3 PV (M)254.67262.41270.30
Year 4 PV (M)266.38277.22288.39
Year 5 PV (M)275.54289.63304.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,110.398,525.138,956.67
Equity Value (M)9,369.429,823.9010,296.28
Shares Outstanding (M)418.75418.75418.75
Fair Value$22.37$23.46$24.59
Upside / Downside252.36%269.45%287.22%

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