DDM Analysis: 0839.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.83 - $23.36	$21.89
Multi-Stage	$9.10 - $9.98	$9.53
Blended Fair Value	$15.71
Current Price	$2.27
Upside	592.25%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.04%	0.00%	0.09	0.46	0.15	0.24	0.15	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-80.03%	208.10%	-37.99%	55.09%	116.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.81%	10.49%	1.97%	2.04%	1.17%	0.75%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	314.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	243.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	71.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	62.80	39.25	23.55
Cash Retained (M)	71.00	71.00	71.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-62.80	-39.25	-23.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.20	31.75	47.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,673.00	2,673.00	2,673.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	4.37%	4.37%	4.37%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.83	$21.89	$23.36
Upside / Downside	773.53%	864.48%	929.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	314.00	334.41	356.15	379.30	403.95	430.21	443.11
Payout Ratio	77.39%	79.91%	82.43%	84.96%	87.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	243.00	267.23	293.58	322.23	353.37	387.19	409.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.37%	4.37%	4.37%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	253.62	256.03	258.43
Year 2 PV (M)	264.45	269.49	274.57
Year 3 PV (M)	275.48	283.39	291.45
Year 4 PV (M)	286.72	297.74	309.08
Year 5 PV (M)	298.16	312.56	327.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)	22,957.32	24,066.17	25,217.45
Equity Value (M)	24,335.76	25,485.38	26,678.51
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,673.00	2,673.00	2,673.00
Fair Value	$9.10	$9.53	$9.98
Upside / Downside	301.07%	320.02%	339.68%

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7951.T	Yamaha Corporation	2.41%	$26.35	66.95%
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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Education Group Holdings Limited (0839.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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