DDM Analysis: 0830.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.01 - $104.06	$97.52
Multi-Stage	$15.68 - $17.17	$16.41
Blended Fair Value	$56.96
Current Price	$1.46
Upside	3,801.70%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	34.78%	26.72%	0.10	0.08	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.09	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	29.11%	38.00%	-0.16%	0.00%	-100.00%	20.00%	-77.73%	541.55%	27.27%	10.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.67%	3.43%	3.27%	3.58%	0.00%	3.14%	3.54%	9.87%	1.13%	0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,180.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	408.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	771.92

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	236.04	147.52	88.51
Cash Retained (M)	771.92	771.92	771.92
(-) Cash Required (M)	-236.04	-147.52	-88.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	535.89	624.40	683.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,255.54	2,255.54	2,255.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.42	0.46	0.48
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$48.01	$97.52	$104.06
Upside / Downside	3,188.63%	6,579.31%	7,027.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,180.18	1,256.89	1,338.59	1,425.59	1,518.26	1,616.94	1,665.45
Payout Ratio	34.59%	45.67%	56.76%	67.84%	78.92%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	408.25	574.07	759.72	967.08	1,198.19	1,455.25	1,540.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	534.38	539.44	544.51
Year 2 PV (M)	658.29	670.83	683.48
Year 3 PV (M)	780.02	802.41	825.23
Year 4 PV (M)	899.59	934.19	969.77
Year 5 PV (M)	1,017.05	1,066.17	1,117.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	31,483.44	33,004.10	34,582.96
Equity Value (M)	35,372.76	37,017.14	38,723.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,255.54	2,255.54	2,255.54
Fair Value	$15.68	$16.41	$17.17
Upside / Downside	974.15%	1,024.09%	1,075.89%

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China State Construction Development Holdings Limited (0830.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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