DDM Analysis: 0586.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$39.41 - $80.87	$55.29
Multi-Stage	$51.37 - $56.38	$53.83
Blended Fair Value	$54.56
Current Price	$8.26
Upside	560.53%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.72%	3.35%	0.28	0.38	0.63	0.61	0.61	0.50	0.44	0.27	0.27	0.33
YoY Growth	-	-	-26.07%	-38.53%	3.08%	0.26%	20.77%	13.24%	63.69%	0.86%	-19.03%	61.90%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.54%	6.55%	4.18%	2.19%	2.13%	1.84%	2.42%	1.96%	2.43%	2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,950.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,165.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,785.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	790.17	493.85	296.31
Cash Retained (M)	2,785.07	2,785.07	2,785.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-790.17	-493.85	-296.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,994.90	2,291.21	2,488.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,742.44	1,742.44	1,742.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.14	1.31	1.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.67	0.67	0.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.14	1.31	1.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.81	1.98	2.10
WACC / Discount Rate	6.84%	6.84%	6.84%
Growth Rate	2.14%	3.14%	4.14%
Fair Value	$39.41	$55.29	$80.87
Upside / Downside	377.16%	569.40%	879.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,950.83	4,074.77	4,202.60	4,334.43	4,470.40	4,610.63	4,748.95
Payout Ratio	29.51%	41.61%	53.70%	65.80%	77.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,165.77	1,695.33	2,256.97	2,852.17	3,482.50	4,149.57	4,392.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.84%	6.84%	6.84%
Growth Rate	2.14%	3.14%	4.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,571.44	1,586.83	1,602.21
Year 2 PV (M)	1,939.16	1,977.32	2,015.85
Year 3 PV (M)	2,271.48	2,338.85	2,407.54
Year 4 PV (M)	2,570.80	2,672.97	2,778.15
Year 5 PV (M)	2,839.38	2,981.13	3,128.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	78,323.24	82,233.28	86,297.95
Equity Value (M)	89,515.49	93,790.37	98,230.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,742.44	1,742.44	1,742.44
Fair Value	$51.37	$53.83	$56.38
Upside / Downside	521.96%	551.66%	582.51%

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China Conch Venture Holdings Limited (0586.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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