Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chinasoft International Limited (0354.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.66 - $36.84$18.76
Multi-Stage$8.10 - $8.86$8.47
Blended Fair Value$13.62
Current Price$4.55
Upside199.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.70%0.00%0.070.050.030.030.020.020.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--37.84%73.89%13.46%35.34%7.66%30.50%47.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.46%0.95%0.49%0.32%0.27%0.46%0.40%0.22%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,188.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)190.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)997.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.67148.5489.13
Cash Retained (M)997.66997.66997.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.67-148.54-89.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)759.99849.12908.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,685.462,685.462,685.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate5.08%6.08%7.08%
Fair Value$11.66$18.76$36.84
Upside / Downside156.31%312.26%709.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,188.351,260.571,337.181,418.451,504.661,596.111,643.99
Payout Ratio16.05%30.84%45.63%60.42%75.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)190.68388.72610.13857.011,131.641,436.501,520.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate5.08%6.08%7.08%
Year 1 PV (M)355.65359.04362.42
Year 2 PV (M)510.74520.50530.36
Year 3 PV (M)656.37675.29694.57
Year 4 PV (M)792.99823.61855.11
Year 5 PV (M)920.98965.651,012.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,509.8519,407.5420,339.73
Equity Value (M)21,746.5822,751.6323,794.23
Shares Outstanding (M)2,685.462,685.462,685.46
Fair Value$8.10$8.47$8.86
Upside / Downside77.98%86.20%94.73%

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