DDM Analysis: 0293.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$33.05 - $56.55	$43.22
Multi-Stage	$52.49 - $57.62	$55.01
Blended Fair Value	$49.12
Current Price	$10.70
Upside	359.02%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	22.09%	14.78%	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.08	0.00	0.17	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	153.39%	0.00%	-100.00%	-38.47%	100.20%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.89%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.06%	0.84%	0.00%	1.96%	2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19,060.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7,900.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11,160.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,812.00	2,382.50	1,429.50
Cash Retained (M)	11,160.00	11,160.00	11,160.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,812.00	-2,382.50	-1,429.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7,348.00	8,777.50	9,730.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7,222.20	7,222.20	7,222.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.02	1.22	1.35
LTM Dividend per Share	1.09	1.09	1.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.02	1.22	1.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.11	2.31	2.44
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	0.68%	1.68%	2.68%
Fair Value	$33.05	$43.22	$56.55
Upside / Downside	208.85%	303.96%	428.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19,060.00	19,380.25	19,705.88	20,036.99	20,373.65	20,715.97	21,337.45
Payout Ratio	41.45%	51.16%	60.87%	70.58%	80.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7,900.00	9,914.64	11,994.74	14,141.95	16,357.93	18,644.38	19,737.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	0.68%	1.68%	2.68%
Year 1 PV (M)	9,165.26	9,256.29	9,347.32
Year 2 PV (M)	10,250.07	10,454.69	10,661.34
Year 3 PV (M)	11,171.54	11,507.74	11,850.61
Year 4 PV (M)	11,945.37	12,427.08	12,923.21
Year 5 PV (M)	12,585.99	13,223.58	13,886.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	323,986.70	340,399.40	357,470.62
Equity Value (M)	379,104.92	397,268.78	416,139.85
Shares Outstanding (M)	7,222.20	7,222.20	7,222.20
Fair Value	$52.49	$55.01	$57.62
Upside / Downside	390.58%	414.08%	438.50%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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