Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BGF Co., Ltd. (027410.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97,498.62 - $114,969.43$107,696.99
Multi-Stage$845,463.09 - $932,473.22$888,115.31
Blended Fair Value$497,906.15
Current Price$3,930.00
Upside12,569.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.72%2.80%133.42110.20123.73110.20110.2034.9567.53414.90317.03193.49
YoY Growth--21.07%-10.94%12.28%-0.01%215.33%-48.24%-83.72%30.87%63.85%91.24%
Dividend Yield--3.92%2.90%2.85%2.07%1.57%0.95%0.83%3.17%0.30%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57,751.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,604.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)43,147.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,550.387,218.994,331.39
Cash Retained (M)43,147.3543,147.3543,147.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,550.38-7,218.99-4,331.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)31,596.9735,928.3638,815.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share330.73376.07406.29
LTM Dividend per Share152.87152.87152.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share330.73376.07406.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend483.60528.94559.16
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate0.80%1.80%2.80%
Fair Value$97,498.62$107,696.99$114,969.43
Upside / Downside2,380.88%2,640.38%2,825.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57,751.9158,794.2559,855.4060,935.7162,035.5163,155.1665,049.82
Payout Ratio25.29%38.23%51.17%64.12%77.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,604.5622,477.4830,629.8439,069.1647,803.1356,839.6560,171.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate0.80%1.80%2.80%
Year 1 PV (M)37,650.2738,023.7738,397.27
Year 2 PV (M)85,938.0987,651.5889,381.99
Year 3 PV (M)183,609.61189,128.30194,756.49
Year 4 PV (M)376,303.40391,459.02407,067.89
Year 5 PV (M)749,468.94787,388.08826,826.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,339,614.2683,353,777.4487,528,797.35
Equity Value (M)80,772,584.5784,847,428.2089,085,227.72
Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
Fair Value$845,463.09$888,115.31$932,473.22
Upside / Downside21,413.06%22,498.35%23,627.05%

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