DDM Analysis: 0189.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.54 - $18.53	$14.70
Multi-Stage	$25.17 - $27.67	$26.39
Blended Fair Value	$20.55
Current Price	$9.56
Upside	114.92%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-30.08%	0.83%	0.08	0.65	0.34	0.13	0.23	0.51	0.31	0.16	0.00	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	-87.00%	91.39%	153.89%	-42.47%	-54.02%	62.10%	97.57%	0.00%	-100.00%	5.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.11%	12.75%	4.50%	1.36%	4.52%	13.16%	8.82%	3.49%	0.00%	5.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,013.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,352.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)	661.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	402.79	251.74	151.04
Cash Retained (M)	661.71	661.71	661.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-402.79	-251.74	-151.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	258.92	409.97	510.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,833.29	1,833.29	1,833.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.22	0.28
LTM Dividend per Share	0.74	0.74	0.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.22	0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.88	0.96	1.02
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-1.17%	-0.17%	0.83%
Fair Value	$11.54	$14.70	$18.53
Upside / Downside	20.68%	53.76%	93.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,013.93	2,010.43	2,006.94	2,003.46	1,999.98	1,996.51	2,056.40
Payout Ratio	67.14%	71.71%	76.29%	80.86%	85.43%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,352.22	1,441.78	1,531.02	1,619.94	1,708.56	1,796.86	1,902.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-1.17%	-0.17%	0.83%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,342.06	1,355.64	1,369.22
Year 2 PV (M)	1,326.56	1,353.54	1,380.79
Year 3 PV (M)	1,306.53	1,346.59	1,387.46
Year 4 PV (M)	1,282.68	1,335.39	1,389.71
Year 5 PV (M)	1,255.67	1,320.50	1,387.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	39,629.04	41,675.01	43,804.63
Equity Value (M)	46,142.54	48,386.67	50,719.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,833.29	1,833.29	1,833.29
Fair Value	$25.17	$26.39	$27.67
Upside / Downside	163.28%	176.08%	189.39%

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Financial Statements

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Dongyue Group Limited (0189.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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