Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. (003490.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$379,085.71 - $508,421.58$476,465.47
Multi-Stage$85,523.47 - $93,669.92$89,521.58
Blended Fair Value$282,993.53
Current Price$22,750.00
Upside1,143.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.60%34.78%750.30760.6512.3049.02164.4968.09181.9790.6762.9337.91
YoY Growth---1.36%6,085.63%-74.91%-70.20%141.57%-62.58%100.70%44.08%66.00%-0.03%
Dividend Yield--3.52%3.45%0.05%0.16%0.60%0.54%0.82%0.40%0.29%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)948,002.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)281,569.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)666,432.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189,600.41118,500.2571,100.15
Cash Retained (M)666,432.94666,432.94666,432.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-189,600.41-118,500.25-71,100.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)476,832.54547,932.69595,332.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)370.82370.82370.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,285.881,477.621,605.44
LTM Dividend per Share759.31759.31759.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,285.881,477.621,605.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,045.192,236.932,364.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$379,085.71$476,465.47$508,421.58
Upside / Downside1,566.31%1,994.35%2,134.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)948,002.041,009,622.171,075,247.611,145,138.711,219,572.721,298,844.951,337,810.30
Payout Ratio29.70%41.76%53.82%65.88%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)281,569.10421,628.86578,706.76754,423.42950,538.191,168,960.461,237,474.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)393,771.22397,503.65401,236.08
Year 2 PV (M)504,761.07514,375.35524,080.33
Year 3 PV (M)614,548.40632,189.88650,165.78
Year 4 PV (M)723,142.94750,952.98779,557.53
Year 5 PV (M)830,554.32870,670.41912,321.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,647,206.8630,030,877.6631,467,504.80
Equity Value (M)31,713,984.8233,196,569.9334,734,866.35
Shares Outstanding (M)370.82370.82370.82
Fair Value$85,523.47$89,521.58$93,669.92
Upside / Downside275.93%293.50%311.74%

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