DDM Analysis: 002850.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$119.03 - $264.15	$171.69
Multi-Stage	$87.25 - $95.22	$91.17
Blended Fair Value	$131.43
Current Price	$195.70
Upside	-32.84%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	58.83%	36.15%	1.56	0.40	0.35	0.24	0.20	0.15	0.18	0.26	0.08	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	292.06%	12.18%	48.29%	18.62%	30.65%	-13.38%	-30.73%	233.33%	199.79%	-63.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.28%	0.44%	0.27%	0.16%	0.31%	0.37%	0.71%	0.72%	0.11%	0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,639.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	548.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,091.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	327.98	204.99	122.99
Cash Retained (M)	1,091.07	1,091.07	1,091.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-327.98	-204.99	-122.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	763.09	886.08	968.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	272.75	272.75	272.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.80	3.25	3.55
LTM Dividend per Share	2.01	2.01	2.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.80	3.25	3.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.81	5.26	5.56
WACC / Discount Rate	9.76%	9.76%	9.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$119.03	$171.69	$264.15
Upside / Downside	-39.18%	-12.27%	34.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,639.89	1,746.49	1,860.01	1,980.91	2,109.67	2,246.80	2,314.20
Payout Ratio	33.47%	44.77%	56.08%	67.39%	78.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	548.83	781.97	1,043.10	1,334.87	1,660.17	2,022.12	2,140.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.76%	9.76%	9.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	705.72	712.41	719.10
Year 2 PV (M)	849.60	865.79	882.12
Year 3 PV (M)	981.24	1,009.41	1,038.11
Year 4 PV (M)	1,101.37	1,143.73	1,187.29
Year 5 PV (M)	1,210.69	1,269.17	1,329.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,949.92	19,865.21	20,815.53
Equity Value (M)	23,798.55	24,865.72	25,972.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	272.75	272.75	272.75
Fair Value	$87.25	$91.17	$95.22
Upside / Downside	-55.41%	-53.41%	-51.34%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co., Ltd. (002850.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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