Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sunrise Group Company Limited (002752.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.11 - $51.18$18.12
Multi-Stage$6.09 - $6.65$6.37
Blended Fair Value$12.24
Current Price$5.40
Upside126.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.09%8.90%0.100.050.030.010.020.020.040.070.220.04
YoY Growth--91.82%66.67%200.00%-53.10%0.00%-50.00%-35.00%-69.48%466.37%-7.19%
Dividend Yield--1.71%1.02%0.59%0.21%0.39%0.43%0.56%0.84%1.72%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)296.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)218.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.2337.0222.21
Cash Retained (M)218.82218.82218.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.23-37.02-22.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)159.59181.80196.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)947.96947.96947.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.11$18.12$51.18
Upside / Downside87.31%235.51%847.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)296.17315.42335.92357.76381.01405.78417.95
Payout Ratio26.12%38.89%51.67%64.45%77.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.35122.68173.57230.56294.23365.20386.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)112.41113.48114.54
Year 2 PV (M)145.74148.51151.32
Year 3 PV (M)177.39182.48187.67
Year 4 PV (M)207.43215.41223.62
Year 5 PV (M)235.92247.32259.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,890.435,126.645,371.89
Equity Value (M)5,769.336,033.846,308.18
Shares Outstanding (M)947.96947.96947.96
Fair Value$6.09$6.37$6.65
Upside / Downside12.70%17.87%23.23%

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