Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Xiantan Co., Ltd. (002746.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.77 - $68.20$63.91
Multi-Stage$10.96 - $11.98$11.46
Blended Fair Value$37.69
Current Price$6.09
Upside518.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.49%22.65%0.180.110.120.220.240.200.090.050.020.01
YoY Growth--62.07%-5.89%-45.72%-6.76%20.19%119.39%94.46%105.38%102.65%-53.25%
Dividend Yield--3.06%1.71%1.34%2.30%3.22%1.90%0.82%0.81%0.20%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)287.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)237.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.4635.9121.55
Cash Retained (M)49.7549.7549.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.46-35.91-21.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.7113.8428.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)837.79837.79837.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.77$63.91$68.20
Upside / Downside487.28%949.49%1,019.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)287.30305.98325.87347.05369.60393.63405.44
Payout Ratio82.68%84.15%85.61%87.07%88.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)237.55257.47278.97302.19327.24354.27375.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)239.92242.19244.46
Year 2 PV (M)242.23246.84251.50
Year 3 PV (M)244.49251.51258.66
Year 4 PV (M)246.71256.20265.96
Year 5 PV (M)248.88260.90273.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,961.488,346.028,745.28
Equity Value (M)9,183.719,603.6710,039.25
Shares Outstanding (M)837.79837.79837.79
Fair Value$10.96$11.46$11.98
Upside / Downside80.00%88.23%96.77%

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