DDM Analysis: 002538.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.22 - $11.73	$7.56
Multi-Stage	$4.04 - $4.41	$4.22
Blended Fair Value	$5.89
Current Price	$5.27
Upside	11.78%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.57%	10.22%	0.24	0.27	0.38	0.20	0.07	0.09	0.18	0.12	0.13	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	-10.03%	-29.41%	92.28%	180.89%	-25.71%	-48.41%	46.94%	-4.56%	33.16%	7.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.99%	5.28%	4.78%	2.26%	1.25%	1.89%	2.95%	1.54%	1.26%	0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	222.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	127.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	94.32

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	44.44	27.78	16.67
Cash Retained (M)	94.32	94.32	94.32
(-) Cash Required (M)	-44.44	-27.78	-16.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	49.88	66.55	77.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	853.57	853.57	853.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	9.47%	9.47%	9.47%
Growth Rate	5.26%	6.26%	7.26%
Fair Value	$5.22	$7.56	$11.73
Upside / Downside	-0.98%	43.48%	122.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	222.20	236.12	250.91	266.63	283.34	301.09	310.12
Payout Ratio	57.55%	64.04%	70.53%	77.02%	83.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	127.88	151.22	176.97	205.36	236.62	270.98	286.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.47%	9.47%	9.47%
Growth Rate	5.26%	6.26%	7.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	136.84	138.14	139.44
Year 2 PV (M)	144.92	147.69	150.48
Year 3 PV (M)	152.18	156.56	161.02
Year 4 PV (M)	158.67	164.79	171.08
Year 5 PV (M)	164.44	172.40	180.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,692.37	2,822.71	2,958.05
Equity Value (M)	3,449.44	3,602.30	3,760.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	853.57	853.57	853.57
Fair Value	$4.04	$4.22	$4.41
Upside / Downside	-23.32%	-19.92%	-16.40%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Sierte Fertilizer industry Ltd. ,company (002538.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener