DDM Analysis: 002478.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.61 - $17.28	$12.82
Multi-Stage	$11.76 - $12.89	$12.32
Blended Fair Value	$12.57
Current Price	$5.71
Upside	120.08%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.15%	10.35%	0.28	0.18	0.08	0.10	0.15	0.14	0.11	0.45	0.09	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	56.04%	126.96%	-18.94%	-33.08%	5.39%	24.67%	-74.81%	400.02%	0.47%	-16.18%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.94%	2.77%	1.42%	2.17%	3.54%	2.76%	1.71%	8.87%	1.07%	1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	615.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	200.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	414.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	123.06	76.91	46.15
Cash Retained (M)	414.83	414.83	414.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-123.06	-76.91	-46.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	291.77	337.91	368.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	902.35	902.35	902.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.37	0.41
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.37	0.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.55	0.60	0.63
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	2.20%	3.20%	4.20%
Fair Value	$9.61	$12.82	$17.28
Upside / Downside	68.21%	124.46%	202.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	615.31	634.97	655.27	676.21	697.82	720.12	741.72
Payout Ratio	32.58%	44.07%	55.55%	67.03%	78.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	200.48	279.81	364.00	453.28	547.90	648.11	686.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	2.20%	3.20%	4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)	256.57	259.08	261.59
Year 2 PV (M)	306.05	312.07	318.15
Year 3 PV (M)	349.47	359.83	370.39
Year 4 PV (M)	387.34	402.72	418.56
Year 5 PV (M)	420.13	441.09	462.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,895.08	9,338.87	9,800.21
Equity Value (M)	10,614.63	11,113.67	11,631.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	902.35	902.35	902.35
Fair Value	$11.76	$12.32	$12.89
Upside / Downside	106.01%	115.70%	125.75%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co.,Ltd (002478.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener