DDM Analysis: 002275.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.37 - $22.03	$16.44
Multi-Stage	$15.88 - $17.37	$16.61
Blended Fair Value	$16.53
Current Price	$14.58
Upside	13.34%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.84%	0.29%	0.58	0.73	0.98	0.78	0.25	0.36	0.41	0.41	0.51	0.61
YoY Growth	-	-	-21.42%	-25.07%	25.83%	209.20%	-30.22%	-11.98%	-0.69%	-18.89%	-16.89%	9.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.09%	5.08%	5.79%	5.62%	1.91%	2.80%	2.70%	2.58%	2.70%	3.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	522.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	358.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	164.64

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	104.58	65.36	39.22
Cash Retained (M)	164.64	164.64	164.64
(-) Cash Required (M)	-104.58	-65.36	-39.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	60.06	99.28	125.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	584.09	584.09	584.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.17	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.61	0.61	0.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.17	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.72	0.78	0.83
WACC / Discount Rate	8.02%	8.02%	8.02%
Growth Rate	2.11%	3.11%	4.11%
Fair Value	$12.37	$16.44	$22.03
Upside / Downside	-15.17%	12.76%	51.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	522.88	539.16	555.93	573.23	591.07	609.46	627.75
Payout Ratio	68.51%	72.81%	77.11%	81.41%	85.70%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	358.25	392.56	428.67	466.64	506.56	548.52	580.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.02%	8.02%	8.02%
Growth Rate	2.11%	3.11%	4.11%
Year 1 PV (M)	359.88	363.40	366.93
Year 2 PV (M)	360.26	367.35	374.51
Year 3 PV (M)	359.52	370.18	381.06
Year 4 PV (M)	357.78	372.00	386.64
Year 5 PV (M)	355.15	372.88	391.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,482.40	7,856.03	8,244.44
Equity Value (M)	9,274.97	9,701.84	10,144.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	584.09	584.09	584.09
Fair Value	$15.88	$16.61	$17.37
Upside / Downside	8.91%	13.93%	19.13%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002275.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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