Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AVIC Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.,Ltd. (002179.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.93 - $241.13$75.33
Multi-Stage$25.07 - $27.36$26.19
Blended Fair Value$50.76
Current Price$41.27
Upside22.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS51.00%28.10%0.600.430.310.220.100.080.080.060.060.05
YoY Growth--37.97%39.46%40.52%129.70%26.41%-6.62%40.79%2.85%6.65%5.12%
Dividend Yield--1.45%1.25%0.75%0.52%0.26%0.40%0.46%0.32%0.46%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,578.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,683.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)894.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)515.60322.25193.35
Cash Retained (M)894.35894.35894.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-515.60-322.25-193.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)378.75572.10701.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,126.212,126.212,126.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.270.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.270.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.93$75.33$241.13
Upside / Downside-0.82%82.52%484.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,578.002,745.572,924.033,114.093,316.513,532.083,638.04
Payout Ratio65.31%70.25%75.18%80.12%85.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,683.641,928.672,198.432,495.112,821.083,178.873,365.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,769.031,785.801,802.57
Year 2 PV (M)1,849.571,884.801,920.36
Year 3 PV (M)1,925.431,980.702,037.02
Year 4 PV (M)1,996.782,073.572,152.56
Year 5 PV (M)2,063.802,163.492,266.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,695.3345,805.8347,997.10
Equity Value (M)53,299.9455,694.1958,176.59
Shares Outstanding (M)2,126.212,126.212,126.21
Fair Value$25.07$26.19$27.36
Upside / Downside-39.26%-36.53%-33.70%

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