DDM Analysis: 001338.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.32 - $7.90	$6.55
Multi-Stage	$10.09 - $11.08	$10.57
Blended Fair Value	$8.56
Current Price	$11.32
Upside	-24.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	-3.54%	0.00%	0.15	0.15	0.05	0.01	0.28	0.18	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.45%	215.39%	730.34%	-98.00%	60.41%	712.93%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.29%	1.37%	0.26%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	332.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	169.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	163.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	66.53	41.58	24.95
Cash Retained (M)	163.46	163.46	163.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-66.53	-41.58	-24.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	96.94	121.89	138.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	501.80	501.80	501.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.24	0.28
LTM Dividend per Share	0.34	0.34	0.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.24	0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.53	0.58	0.61
WACC / Discount Rate	7.76%	7.76%	7.76%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$5.32	$6.55	$7.90
Upside / Downside	-52.96%	-42.10%	-30.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	332.63	329.30	326.01	322.75	319.52	316.32	325.81
Payout Ratio	50.86%	58.69%	66.51%	74.34%	82.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	169.16	193.25	216.84	239.94	262.55	284.69	301.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.76%	7.76%	7.76%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	177.52	179.33	181.14
Year 2 PV (M)	182.98	186.73	190.52
Year 3 PV (M)	185.99	191.74	197.61
Year 4 PV (M)	186.96	194.71	202.69
Year 5 PV (M)	186.22	195.92	206.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,141.27	4,356.91	4,581.45
Equity Value (M)	5,060.95	5,305.35	5,559.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	501.80	501.80	501.80
Fair Value	$10.09	$10.57	$11.08
Upside / Downside	-10.91%	-6.60%	-2.13%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

GDH Supertime Group Company Limited (001338.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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