Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (000999.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$317.03 - $373.52$350.04
Multi-Stage$85.65 - $93.80$89.65
Blended Fair Value$219.85
Current Price$28.09
Upside682.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.32%27.26%1.930.670.570.340.290.260.310.110.100.27
YoY Growth--186.78%17.40%69.68%17.87%10.26%-15.22%187.50%6.67%-63.24%56.92%
Dividend Yield--5.95%2.17%1.68%1.26%1.98%1.58%1.77%0.65%0.63%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,760.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,746.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,014.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)552.18345.11207.07
Cash Retained (M)1,014.231,014.231,014.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-552.18-345.11-207.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)462.05669.11807.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.991,469.991,469.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.460.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.460.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.74
WACC / Discount Rate5.31%5.31%5.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$317.03$350.04$373.52
Upside / Downside1,028.64%1,146.15%1,229.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,760.882,940.343,131.463,335.013,551.783,782.653,896.13
Payout Ratio63.26%68.61%73.96%79.31%84.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,746.662,017.412,315.992,644.853,006.693,404.383,603.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.31%5.31%5.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,897.701,915.691,933.68
Year 2 PV (M)2,049.282,088.322,127.72
Year 3 PV (M)2,201.412,264.602,328.99
Year 4 PV (M)2,354.072,444.602,537.72
Year 5 PV (M)2,507.282,628.382,754.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,896.38120,445.92126,207.85
Equity Value (M)125,906.12131,787.50137,890.07
Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.991,469.991,469.99
Fair Value$85.65$89.65$93.80
Upside / Downside204.92%219.16%233.94%

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