DDM Analysis: 000788.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.45 - $2.02	$1.74
Multi-Stage	$2.31 - $2.54	$2.42
Blended Fair Value	$2.08
Current Price	$6.14
Upside	-66.14%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.30%	-7.51%	0.08	0.01	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.05	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	1,099.95%	-85.96%	42.79%	42.81%	-45.66%	34.43%	124.25%	-70.36%	-61.38%	-28.92%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.35%	0.12%	0.64%	0.26%	0.36%	0.68%	0.37%	0.19%	0.38%	1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	143.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	48.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	95.32

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	28.72	17.95	10.77
Cash Retained (M)	95.32	95.32	95.32
(-) Cash Required (M)	-28.72	-17.95	-10.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	66.60	77.37	84.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	595.90	595.90	595.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.13	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.13	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-2.95%	-1.95%	-0.95%
Fair Value	$1.45	$1.74	$2.02
Upside / Downside	-76.39%	-71.72%	-67.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	143.61	140.81	138.07	135.38	132.74	130.16	134.06
Payout Ratio	33.62%	44.90%	56.17%	67.45%	78.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	48.28	63.22	77.56	91.31	104.50	117.14	124.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-2.95%	-1.95%	-0.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	56.91	57.49	58.08
Year 2 PV (M)	62.84	64.14	65.46
Year 3 PV (M)	66.60	68.68	70.80
Year 4 PV (M)	68.61	71.48	74.44
Year 5 PV (M)	69.23	72.87	76.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,053.03	1,108.41	1,166.09
Equity Value (M)	1,377.21	1,443.07	1,511.54
Shares Outstanding (M)	595.90	595.90	595.90
Fair Value	$2.31	$2.42	$2.54
Upside / Downside	-62.36%	-60.56%	-58.69%

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601966.SS	Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd.	2.41%	$0.35	42.43%
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PKU HealthCare Corp.,Ltd. (000788.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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