DDM Analysis: 000630.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.07 - $14.93	$6.80
Multi-Stage	$2.76 - $3.01	$2.88
Blended Fair Value	$4.84
Current Price	$5.36
Upside	-9.71%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.45%	5.09%	0.13	0.11	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.09	0.09	0.05	0.06	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	16.47%	-23.30%	68.61%	32.71%	-24.95%	3.71%	61.75%	-16.75%	-36.04%	22.65%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.87%	2.87%	4.62%	2.37%	2.49%	4.45%	3.12%	2.01%	2.00%	3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,849.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,703.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	145.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	369.84	231.15	138.69
Cash Retained (M)	145.25	145.25	145.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-369.84	-231.15	-138.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-224.59	-85.90	6.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	13,025.77	13,025.77	13,025.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	-0.01	0.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	-0.01	0.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	8.45%	8.45%	8.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$4.07	$6.80	$14.93
Upside / Downside	-24.11%	26.85%	178.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,849.19	1,969.39	2,097.40	2,233.73	2,378.93	2,533.56	2,609.56
Payout Ratio	92.15%	91.72%	91.29%	90.86%	90.43%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,703.95	1,806.26	1,914.66	2,029.53	2,151.24	2,280.20	2,413.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.45%	8.45%	8.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,649.95	1,665.59	1,681.22
Year 2 PV (M)	1,597.62	1,628.05	1,658.77
Year 3 PV (M)	1,546.92	1,591.32	1,636.57
Year 4 PV (M)	1,497.79	1,555.39	1,614.64
Year 5 PV (M)	1,450.19	1,520.24	1,592.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	28,191.02	29,552.66	30,966.41
Equity Value (M)	35,933.50	37,513.26	39,150.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	13,025.77	13,025.77	13,025.77
Fair Value	$2.76	$2.88	$3.01
Upside / Downside	-48.53%	-46.27%	-43.92%

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Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.,Ltd. (000630.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener