DDM Analysis: 000617.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.18 - $9.79	$7.05
Multi-Stage	$7.98 - $8.75	$8.36
Blended Fair Value	$7.70
Current Price	$10.50
Upside	-26.63%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.13%	50.56%	0.22	0.26	0.28	0.34	0.36	0.41	0.37	0.14	0.00	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	-17.30%	-8.18%	-16.30%	-5.94%	-12.39%	10.41%	166.88%	4,914.46%	-98.96%	7,353.64%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.38%	4.54%	4.07%	6.65%	4.49%	5.92%	3.65%	1.46%	0.02%	3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,306.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,396.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,910.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	861.39	538.37	323.02
Cash Retained (M)	1,910.20	1,910.20	1,910.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-861.39	-538.37	-323.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,048.81	1,371.83	1,587.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	12,665.25	12,665.25	12,665.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.31
WACC / Discount Rate	6.65%	6.65%	6.65%
Growth Rate	1.33%	2.33%	3.33%
Fair Value	$5.18	$7.05	$9.79
Upside / Downside	-50.64%	-32.86%	-6.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,306.94	4,407.37	4,510.13	4,615.29	4,722.90	4,833.03	4,978.02
Payout Ratio	55.65%	62.52%	69.39%	76.26%	83.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,396.75	2,755.43	3,129.54	3,519.59	3,926.14	4,349.72	4,604.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.65%	6.65%	6.65%
Growth Rate	1.33%	2.33%	3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,558.36	2,583.61	2,608.85
Year 2 PV (M)	2,697.89	2,751.40	2,805.44
Year 3 PV (M)	2,817.14	2,901.37	2,987.26
Year 4 PV (M)	2,917.79	3,034.68	3,155.05
Year 5 PV (M)	3,001.39	3,152.44	3,309.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	87,036.63	91,416.88	95,971.73
Equity Value (M)	101,029.20	105,840.38	110,837.85
Shares Outstanding (M)	12,665.25	12,665.25	12,665.25
Fair Value	$7.98	$8.36	$8.75
Upside / Downside	-24.03%	-20.41%	-16.65%

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Financial Statements

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CNPC Capital Company Limited (000617.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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