Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guizhou Tyre Co.,Ltd. (000589.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.78 - $46.07$17.27
Multi-Stage$5.93 - $6.48$6.20
Blended Fair Value$11.73
Current Price$4.50
Upside160.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.15%6.14%0.260.220.080.130.090.100.090.100.130.15
YoY Growth--19.49%174.63%-38.47%38.56%-2.78%4.44%-8.96%-19.78%-14.22%1.95%
Dividend Yield--5.48%3.78%1.58%2.85%1.62%2.95%2.63%2.93%2.51%3.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)504.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)387.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.9963.1237.87
Cash Retained (M)387.75387.75387.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.99-63.12-37.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)286.76324.63349.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.911,634.911,634.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.78$17.27$46.07
Upside / Downside117.24%283.78%923.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)504.97537.79572.75609.97649.62691.85712.60
Payout Ratio23.21%36.57%49.93%63.29%76.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.22196.67285.96386.02497.89622.66659.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)180.11181.82183.53
Year 2 PV (M)239.84244.41249.02
Year 3 PV (M)296.51305.02313.70
Year 4 PV (M)350.24363.71377.57
Year 5 PV (M)401.15420.52440.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,219.298,616.299,028.48
Equity Value (M)9,687.1510,131.7710,592.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.911,634.911,634.91
Fair Value$5.93$6.20$6.48
Upside / Downside31.67%37.71%43.98%

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