Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk (SIDO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,310.02 - $6,878.84$2,362.91
Multi-Stage$1,144.06 - $1,251.04$1,196.56
Blended Fair Value$1,779.74
Current Price$535.00
Upside232.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.03%10.31%36.2135.8136.4234.1425.9521.4621.9612.9812.3612.07
YoY Growth--1.12%-1.66%6.66%31.54%20.93%-2.27%69.23%5.01%2.36%-11.11%
Dividend Yield--6.47%5.87%4.19%3.35%3.33%3.70%4.43%3.85%4.41%4.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,211,453.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,167,522.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)43,931.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)242,290.60151,431.6390,858.98
Cash Retained (M)43,931.0043,931.0043,931.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-242,290.60-151,431.63-90,858.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)-198,359.60-107,500.63-46,927.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29,822.7729,822.7729,822.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-6.65-3.60-1.57
LTM Dividend per Share39.1539.1539.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-6.65-3.60-1.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend32.5035.5437.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Fair Value$1,310.02$2,362.91$6,878.84
Upside / Downside144.86%341.67%1,185.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,211,453.001,271,468.881,334,457.971,400,567.571,469,952.271,542,774.311,589,057.54
Payout Ratio96.37%95.10%93.82%92.55%91.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,167,522.001,209,153.621,252,044.731,296,217.971,341,695.091,388,496.881,469,878.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Year 1 PV (M)1,124,191.561,135,005.871,145,820.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,082,274.751,103,197.081,124,319.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,041,728.541,072,081.811,103,019.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,002,511.111,041,646.481,081,916.61
Year 5 PV (M)964,581.911,011,877.771,061,010.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,903,846.4630,321,074.2131,793,356.87
Equity Value (M)34,119,134.3335,684,883.2237,309,443.34
Shares Outstanding (M)29,822.7729,822.7729,822.77
Fair Value$1,144.06$1,196.56$1,251.04
Upside / Downside113.84%123.66%133.84%

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