Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ILJIN Holdings Co., Ltd. (015860.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$152,005.81 - $179,088.60$167,832.25
Multi-Stage$104,332.24 - $114,472.92$109,308.00
Blended Fair Value$138,570.13
Current Price$5,460.00
Upside2,437.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.24%12.91%272.61241.39246.40100.03146.2770.0251.3060.19111.81109.04
YoY Growth--12.93%-2.03%146.32%-31.61%108.89%36.49%-14.77%-46.17%2.54%34.66%
Dividend Yield--7.69%5.47%5.42%1.99%2.91%2.53%1.41%1.19%2.31%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41,397.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,774.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,623.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,279.595,174.743,104.85
Cash Retained (M)19,623.5919,623.5919,623.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,279.59-5,174.74-3,104.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,344.0014,448.8416,518.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.9745.9745.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share246.76314.30359.32
LTM Dividend per Share473.65473.65473.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share246.76314.30359.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend720.41787.94832.97
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$152,005.81$167,832.25$179,088.60
Upside / Downside2,683.99%2,973.85%3,180.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41,397.9544,088.8146,954.5950,006.6353,257.0656,718.7758,420.34
Payout Ratio52.60%60.08%67.56%75.04%82.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,774.3626,487.7431,721.8637,524.5143,947.4851,046.9054,038.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25,675.0425,918.4026,161.77
Year 2 PV (M)29,805.1330,372.8430,945.90
Year 3 PV (M)34,175.4035,156.4536,156.10
Year 4 PV (M)38,797.0540,289.0841,823.73
Year 5 PV (M)43,681.7745,791.6247,982.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,624,201.114,847,551.765,079,450.56
Equity Value (M)4,796,335.515,025,080.155,262,520.27
Shares Outstanding (M)45.9745.9745.97
Fair Value$104,332.24$109,308.00$114,472.92
Upside / Downside1,810.85%1,901.98%1,996.57%

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