Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GF Securities Co., Ltd. (000776.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.97 - $60.35$41.76
Multi-Stage$40.58 - $44.47$42.49
Blended Fair Value$42.13
Current Price$22.28
Upside89.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.05%5.85%0.550.471.261.050.930.790.980.901.430.52
YoY Growth--17.41%-62.84%19.90%12.14%18.29%-19.76%9.83%-37.29%174.93%67.53%
Dividend Yield--3.40%3.47%7.96%5.96%5.96%5.77%6.01%5.44%8.36%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,806.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,324.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,481.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,761.331,725.831,035.50
Cash Retained (M)5,481.755,481.755,481.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,761.33-1,725.83-1,035.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,720.413,755.914,446.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,793.177,793.177,793.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Fair Value$29.97$41.76$60.35
Upside / Downside34.54%87.44%170.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,806.6714,227.5914,661.3315,108.3015,568.9016,043.5316,524.84
Payout Ratio60.30%66.24%72.18%78.12%84.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,324.939,423.9410,582.2311,802.3913,087.1014,439.1815,285.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)8,732.258,817.828,903.39
Year 2 PV (M)9,085.829,264.769,445.45
Year 3 PV (M)9,389.679,668.429,952.63
Year 4 PV (M)9,647.5610,031.3110,426.39
Year 5 PV (M)9,863.0210,355.8410,868.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)269,527.28282,994.46296,994.67
Equity Value (M)316,245.59331,132.61346,590.69
Shares Outstanding (M)7,793.177,793.177,793.17
Fair Value$40.58$42.49$44.47
Upside / Downside82.14%90.71%99.61%

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