Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Northeast Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (000597.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.90 - $50.82$35.46
Multi-Stage$10.82 - $11.87$11.33
Blended Fair Value$23.40
Current Price$5.33
Upside338.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%0.32%0.140.150.080.110.090.090.120.110.110.13
YoY Growth---6.21%100.79%-33.87%32.46%-7.84%-18.59%4.57%1.82%-15.09%-7.72%
Dividend Yield--2.83%3.15%1.28%1.80%1.89%1.88%1.91%2.42%1.85%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)374.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.9246.8228.09
Cash Retained (M)171.71171.71171.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.92-46.82-28.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.79124.88143.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,440.481,440.481,440.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate5.31%5.31%5.31%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$12.90$35.46$50.82
Upside / Downside142.02%565.28%853.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)374.58391.97410.17429.21449.14469.99484.09
Payout Ratio54.16%61.33%68.50%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.88240.39280.95324.76372.03422.99447.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.31%5.31%5.31%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)226.08228.26230.44
Year 2 PV (M)248.50253.31258.18
Year 3 PV (M)270.14278.04286.09
Year 4 PV (M)291.04302.44314.16
Year 5 PV (M)311.21326.51342.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,237.1214,937.3415,664.84
Equity Value (M)15,584.0816,325.9017,096.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,440.481,440.481,440.48
Fair Value$10.82$11.33$11.87
Upside / Downside102.98%112.64%122.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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