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Definitive Analysis

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSFA.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,333.23 - $30,425.36$13,724.14
Multi-Stage$3,385.31 - $3,703.08$3,541.29
Blended Fair Value$8,632.72
Current Price$8,480.33
Upside1.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.96%16.66%35.0028.1327.5025.6225.0025.0020.0017.5015.0011.25
YoY Growth--24.45%2.27%7.32%2.50%0.00%25.00%14.29%16.67%33.34%50.01%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.63%0.97%0.86%0.75%1.71%1.57%1.39%1.51%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,586,819.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440,849.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,145,969.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)317,363.83198,352.39119,011.43
Cash Retained (M)1,145,969.311,145,969.311,145,969.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-317,363.83-198,352.39-119,011.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)828,605.48947,616.921,026,957.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,372.2210,372.2210,372.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.8991.3699.01
LTM Dividend per Share42.5042.5042.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.8991.3699.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend122.39133.86141.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,333.23$13,724.14$30,425.36
Upside / Downside-25.32%61.84%258.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,586,819.131,689,962.371,799,809.931,916,797.572,041,389.412,174,079.722,239,302.12
Payout Ratio27.78%40.23%52.67%65.11%77.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440,849.82679,797.27947,945.311,248,080.441,583,228.071,956,671.752,071,354.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)626,205.85632,141.45638,077.05
Year 2 PV (M)804,375.23819,696.32835,161.95
Year 3 PV (M)975,563.831,003,568.761,032,104.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,139,972.291,183,812.411,228,905.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,297,796.191,360,480.231,425,563.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,269,329.0631,731,348.9833,249,323.83
Equity Value (M)35,113,242.4536,731,048.1438,409,135.75
Shares Outstanding (M)10,372.2210,372.2210,372.22
Fair Value$3,385.31$3,541.29$3,703.08
Upside / Downside-60.08%-58.24%-56.33%

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