Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Fundamentals

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.52 - $4.62$4.10
Multi-Stage$6.90 - $7.60$7.24
Blended Fair Value$5.67
Current Price$62.98
Upside-91.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.12%9.76%1.622.031.861.551.160.960.890.680.640.64
YoY Growth---20.20%9.00%20.15%33.17%21.73%7.97%30.49%5.72%0.45%0.10%
Dividend Yield--2.57%3.22%4.79%4.10%1.96%4.45%3.29%2.63%2.49%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.769.225.53
Cash Retained (M)32.5132.5132.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.76-9.22-5.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.7523.2926.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.4676.4676.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.300.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.300.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate-9.80%-8.80%-7.80%
Fair Value$3.52$4.10$4.62
Upside / Downside-94.42%-93.50%-92.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.7967.2961.3755.9751.0546.5647.95
Payout Ratio55.94%62.75%69.56%76.38%83.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.2842.2342.6942.7542.4741.9044.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate-9.80%-8.80%-7.80%
Year 1 PV (M)37.9738.3938.81
Year 2 PV (M)34.5135.2836.06
Year 3 PV (M)31.0732.1133.18
Year 4 PV (M)27.7529.0030.29
Year 5 PV (M)24.6126.0127.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)371.82392.89414.91
Equity Value (M)527.72553.68580.71
Shares Outstanding (M)76.4676.4676.46
Fair Value$6.90$7.24$7.60
Upside / Downside-89.04%-88.50%-87.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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