DDM Analysis: GVA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$61.19 - $121.78	$84.88
Multi-Stage	$56.78 - $62.17	$59.43
Blended Fair Value	$72.15
Current Price	$109.65
Upside	-34.20%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.27%	1.16%	0.45	0.45	0.46	0.47	0.47	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.41	0.40
YoY Growth	-	-	0.01%	-1.98%	-2.24%	0.39%	-2.48%	8.44%	8.40%	0.60%	0.58%	0.62%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.60%	0.80%	1.12%	1.44%	1.17%	3.17%	0.99%	0.73%	0.81%	0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	182.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	159.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	36.49	22.81	13.68
Cash Retained (M)	159.74	159.74	159.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-36.49	-22.81	-13.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	123.25	136.94	146.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	50.50	50.50	50.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.44	2.71	2.89
LTM Dividend per Share	0.45	0.45	0.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.44	2.71	2.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.89	3.16	3.34
WACC / Discount Rate	8.73%	8.73%	8.73%
Growth Rate	3.82%	4.82%	5.82%
Fair Value	$61.19	$84.88	$121.78
Upside / Downside	-44.20%	-22.59%	11.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	182.46	191.26	200.48	210.16	220.29	230.92	237.85
Payout Ratio	12.45%	27.96%	43.47%	58.98%	74.49%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.71	53.47	87.15	123.95	164.10	207.83	220.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.73%	8.73%	8.73%
Growth Rate	3.82%	4.82%	5.82%
Year 1 PV (M)	48.71	49.18	49.65
Year 2 PV (M)	72.32	73.72	75.13
Year 3 PV (M)	93.70	96.43	99.22
Year 4 PV (M)	113.00	117.42	121.96
Year 5 PV (M)	130.37	136.77	143.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,409.24	2,527.53	2,650.41
Equity Value (M)	2,867.34	3,001.04	3,139.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	50.50	50.50	50.50
Fair Value	$56.78	$59.43	$62.17
Upside / Downside	-48.22%	-45.80%	-43.30%

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Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener