Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$621.76 - $3,232.77$1,255.45
Multi-Stage$341.41 - $373.65$357.23
Blended Fair Value$806.34
Current Price$513.19
Upside57.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.49%9.13%1.941.681.491.371.281.231.111.040.980.90
YoY Growth--14.93%13.13%8.60%6.76%4.40%10.91%6.83%5.50%9.64%11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.43%0.59%0.67%0.65%0.77%0.69%0.95%0.92%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)529.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.4275.8945.53
Cash Retained (M)529.10529.10529.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.42-75.89-45.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)407.68453.21483.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.3537.3537.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.9212.1412.95
LTM Dividend per Share2.092.092.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.9212.1412.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.0014.2215.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$621.76$1,255.45$3,232.77
Upside / Downside21.15%144.64%529.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607.10646.56688.58733.34781.01831.77856.73
Payout Ratio12.85%28.28%43.71%59.14%74.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.99182.83300.97433.69582.39748.60792.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)168.16169.75171.34
Year 2 PV (M)254.59259.44264.33
Year 3 PV (M)337.41347.10356.97
Year 4 PV (M)416.73432.76449.24
Year 5 PV (M)492.66516.46541.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,081.0911,616.3112,172.02
Equity Value (M)12,750.6513,341.8213,955.07
Shares Outstanding (M)37.3537.3537.35
Fair Value$341.41$357.23$373.65
Upside / Downside-33.47%-30.39%-27.19%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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