Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$266.39 - $1,379.06$539.94
Multi-Stage$167.98 - $183.99$175.84
Blended Fair Value$357.89
Current Price$196.01
Upside82.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.29%44.22%1.161.071.010.950.900.810.200.000.000.03
YoY Growth--7.89%6.11%6.76%5.61%10.11%313.95%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-7.69%
Dividend Yield--0.82%0.87%1.42%1.05%0.99%1.02%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)305.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.0838.1822.91
Cash Retained (M)251.30251.30251.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.08-38.18-22.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.22213.13228.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.7843.7843.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.354.875.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.354.875.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.586.106.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate4.85%5.85%6.85%
Fair Value$266.39$539.94$1,379.06
Upside / Downside35.91%175.47%603.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)305.40323.26342.17362.18383.36405.78417.95
Payout Ratio17.71%32.17%46.63%61.09%75.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.10104.00159.55221.24289.60365.20386.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate4.85%5.85%6.85%
Year 1 PV (M)96.2497.1598.07
Year 2 PV (M)136.62139.24141.88
Year 3 PV (M)175.30180.37185.53
Year 4 PV (M)212.35220.56229.02
Year 5 PV (M)247.79259.84272.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,484.826,800.037,127.37
Equity Value (M)7,353.127,697.198,054.21
Shares Outstanding (M)43.7843.7843.78
Fair Value$167.98$175.84$183.99
Upside / Downside-14.30%-10.29%-6.13%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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