Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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APA Corporation (APA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.59 - $37.54$32.01
Multi-Stage$41.00 - $45.02$42.97
Blended Fair Value$37.49
Current Price$24.28
Upside54.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.25%-0.33%0.970.850.570.140.341.031.051.041.041.04
YoY Growth--14.61%48.79%298.08%-57.72%-67.29%-1.57%0.53%0.26%0.53%3.29%
Dividend Yield--4.61%2.39%1.58%0.35%1.89%24.71%3.00%2.71%2.03%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,509.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)364.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,145.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)301.80188.63113.18
Cash Retained (M)1,145.001,145.001,145.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-301.80-188.63-113.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)843.20956.381,031.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.00364.00364.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.322.632.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.322.632.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.323.633.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.33%-1.33%-0.33%
Fair Value$26.59$32.01$37.54
Upside / Downside9.52%31.84%54.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,509.001,488.871,469.021,449.421,430.091,411.021,453.35
Payout Ratio24.12%37.30%50.47%63.65%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)364.00555.31741.46922.541,098.661,269.921,344.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.33%-1.33%-0.33%
Year 1 PV (M)500.41505.53510.66
Year 2 PV (M)602.09614.48627.00
Year 3 PV (M)675.07696.02717.40
Year 4 PV (M)724.46754.59785.65
Year 5 PV (M)754.60794.03835.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,666.9012,276.5412,911.40
Equity Value (M)14,923.5315,641.2016,387.20
Shares Outstanding (M)364.00364.00364.00
Fair Value$41.00$42.97$45.02
Upside / Downside68.86%76.98%85.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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