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Definitive Analysis

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AIB Group plc (A5G.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.99 - $216.92$190.18
Multi-Stage$27.79 - $30.39$29.07
Blended Fair Value$109.62
Current Price$6.99
Upside1,468.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.59%0.00%0.280.070.050.030.020.190.130.100.020.00
YoY Growth--319.28%36.07%87.69%41.30%-90.02%41.41%30.40%575.68%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.33%1.74%1.37%1.24%1.12%6.05%3.61%1.87%0.30%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,674.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,367.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)534.90334.31200.59
Cash Retained (M)1,367.501,367.501,367.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-534.90-334.31-200.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)832.601,033.191,166.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,452.032,452.032,452.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.420.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.420.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.99$190.18$216.92
Upside / Downside758.28%2,620.71%3,003.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,674.502,848.343,033.483,230.663,440.653,664.303,774.23
Payout Ratio48.87%57.10%65.32%73.55%81.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,307.001,626.271,981.512,376.072,813.553,297.873,491.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,505.121,519.391,533.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,697.291,729.621,762.25
Year 3 PV (M)1,883.641,937.711,992.81
Year 4 PV (M)2,064.302,143.682,225.34
Year 5 PV (M)2,239.392,347.552,459.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,759.7861,597.9064,544.64
Equity Value (M)68,149.5171,275.8574,518.54
Shares Outstanding (M)2,452.032,452.032,452.03
Fair Value$27.79$29.07$30.39
Upside / Downside297.61%315.85%334.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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