DDM Analysis: 6199.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.29 - $3.49	$2.85
Multi-Stage	$4.59 - $5.05	$4.82
Blended Fair Value	$3.84
Current Price	$1.09
Upside	251.89%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	703.54%	0.29%	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.05	0.04	0.06	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	8.16%	-1.91%	-13.52%	4.76%	3,485,092.86%	-100.00%	32.12%	-37.58%	-10.46%	6.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.51%	3.94%	3.54%	3.34%	3.03%	0.00%	2.49%	2.02%	2.92%	3.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,785.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	918.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,866.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	757.01	473.13	283.88
Cash Retained (M)	2,866.31	2,866.31	2,866.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-757.01	-473.13	-283.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,109.30	2,393.17	2,582.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	14,588.05	14,588.05	14,588.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	-1.85%	-0.85%	0.15%
Fair Value	$2.29	$2.85	$3.49
Upside / Downside	110.26%	161.76%	220.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,785.04	3,752.72	3,720.67	3,688.89	3,657.38	3,626.15	3,734.93
Payout Ratio	24.27%	37.42%	50.56%	63.71%	76.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	918.74	1,404.20	1,881.31	2,350.16	2,810.87	3,263.53	3,454.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	-1.85%	-0.85%	0.15%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,298.68	1,311.91	1,325.14
Year 2 PV (M)	1,609.18	1,642.13	1,675.43
Year 3 PV (M)	1,859.14	1,916.55	1,975.13
Year 4 PV (M)	2,056.50	2,141.60	2,229.32
Year 5 PV (M)	2,208.25	2,323.06	2,442.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	57,935.92	60,948.20	64,084.49
Equity Value (M)	66,967.66	70,283.45	73,732.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	14,588.05	14,588.05	14,588.05
Fair Value	$4.59	$4.82	$5.05
Upside / Downside	321.15%	342.01%	363.70%

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601808.SS	China Oilfield Services Limited	2.55%	$0.36	43.75%
7606.T	United Arrows Ltd.	2.55%	$62.63	43.42%
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JUNGH.SW	Jungheinrich AG	2.55%	$0.79	22.62%
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1527.HK	Zhejiang Tengy Environmental Technology Co., Ltd	2.54%	$0.05	4.95%
5212.KL	Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust	2.54%	$0.05	39.63%
5489.TWO	DynaColor, Inc.	2.54%	$1.02	50.42%
600273.SS	Zhejiang Jiahua Energy Chemical Industry Co.,Ltd.	2.54%	$0.22	28.18%
600724.SS	Ningbo Fuda Company Limited	2.54%	$0.15	96.79%
7505.T	Fuso Dentsu Co., Ltd.	2.54%	$48.50	22.36%
8850.T	Starts Corporation Inc.	2.54%	$121.52	25.36%
BLAU3.SA	Blau Farmacêutica S.A.	2.54%	$0.35	19.81%
2367.HK	Giant Biogene Holding Co., Ltd.	2.53%	$0.87	22.55%
2701.TW	Wan Hwa Enterprise Company Ltd.	2.53%	$0.28	52.89%
600963.SS	Yueyang Forest & Paper Co., Ltd.	2.53%	$0.12	48.95%
603697.SS	YouYou Foods Co., Ltd.	2.53%	$0.31	63.16%
CK-R.BK	CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited	2.53%	$0.30	25.56%
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600406.SS	NARI Technology Co., Ltd.	2.52%	$0.57	56.63%
600909.SS	Huaan Securities Co., Ltd.	2.52%	$0.17	38.30%
603811.SS	Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.	2.52%	$0.26	37.15%
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Bank of Guizhou Co., Ltd. (6199.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener