DDM Analysis: 603650.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.65 - $49.57	$30.59
Multi-Stage	$15.75 - $17.14	$16.43
Blended Fair Value	$23.51
Current Price	$44.19
Upside	-46.80%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.86%	18.75%	0.98	0.21	0.21	0.42	0.41	0.38	0.05	0.29	0.29	0.48
YoY Growth	-	-	371.92%	-1.05%	-49.65%	2.30%	7.22%	728.43%	-84.09%	-1.20%	-38.63%	170.51%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.04%	0.78%	0.53%	1.16%	1.19%	2.50%	0.17%	1.63%	1.65%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	572.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	514.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	57.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	114.45	71.53	42.92
Cash Retained (M)	57.67	57.67	57.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-114.45	-71.53	-42.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-56.78	-13.86	14.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	595.34	595.34	595.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.10	-0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.86	0.86	0.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.10	-0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.77	0.84	0.89
WACC / Discount Rate	9.43%	9.43%	9.43%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$20.65	$30.59	$49.57
Upside / Downside	-53.26%	-30.78%	12.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	572.27	609.47	649.08	691.27	736.20	784.06	807.58
Payout Ratio	89.92%	89.94%	89.95%	89.97%	89.98%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	514.60	548.14	583.87	621.93	662.47	705.65	747.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.43%	9.43%	9.43%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	496.21	500.92	505.62
Year 2 PV (M)	478.48	487.59	496.79
Year 3 PV (M)	461.38	474.63	488.12
Year 4 PV (M)	444.90	462.01	479.60
Year 5 PV (M)	429.00	449.72	471.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,064.76	7,405.99	7,760.28
Equity Value (M)	9,374.73	9,780.86	10,201.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	595.34	595.34	595.34
Fair Value	$15.75	$16.43	$17.14
Upside / Downside	-64.37%	-62.82%	-61.22%

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Red Avenue New Materials Group Co., Ltd. (603650.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener