Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.,Ltd (603317.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.98 - $109.42$46.09
Multi-Stage$12.73 - $13.88$13.29
Blended Fair Value$29.69
Current Price$11.56
Upside156.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.62%24.46%0.400.230.040.150.110.080.060.190.030.03
YoY Growth--74.46%543.01%-76.07%36.24%40.00%38.89%-71.08%575.78%5.39%-39.12%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.71%0.20%1.16%0.38%0.38%0.70%2.43%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)584.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)581.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.8873.0543.83
Cash Retained (M)2.802.802.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.88-73.05-43.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-114.08-70.25-41.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,062.231,062.231,062.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.07-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.07-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.98$46.09$109.42
Upside / Downside90.15%298.68%846.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)584.41622.39662.85705.93751.82800.69824.71
Payout Ratio99.52%97.62%95.71%93.81%91.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)581.60607.56634.43662.22690.95720.62762.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)559.28564.58569.88
Year 2 PV (M)537.61547.84558.18
Year 3 PV (M)516.57531.40546.51
Year 4 PV (M)496.15515.23534.85
Year 5 PV (M)476.33499.34523.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,932.4211,460.4612,008.71
Equity Value (M)13,518.3514,118.8414,741.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,062.231,062.231,062.23
Fair Value$12.73$13.29$13.88
Upside / Downside10.09%14.98%20.05%

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