Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. (600809.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$198.60 - $438.88$286.05
Multi-Stage$144.15 - $157.40$150.66
Blended Fair Value$218.35
Current Price$194.01
Upside12.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.29%33.24%4.383.311.800.140.650.520.460.420.250.00
YoY Growth--32.66%83.61%1,159.96%-77.93%24.98%12.70%10.59%66.21%22,889.39%-99.56%
Dividend Yield--2.05%1.31%0.66%0.06%0.27%0.80%1.06%1.06%1.19%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,297.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,019.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,278.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,459.481,537.18922.31
Cash Retained (M)9,278.409,278.409,278.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,459.48-1,537.18-922.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,818.917,741.228,356.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,219.881,219.881,219.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.596.356.85
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.596.356.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.068.829.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$198.60$286.05$438.88
Upside / Downside2.37%47.44%126.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,297.4213,096.7513,948.0414,854.6615,820.2216,848.5317,353.99
Payout Ratio24.55%37.64%50.73%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,019.024,929.627,075.849,480.2512,167.3315,163.6816,052.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,448.134,490.294,532.45
Year 2 PV (M)5,761.105,870.835,981.60
Year 3 PV (M)6,964.837,164.777,368.49
Year 4 PV (M)8,065.848,376.038,695.08
Year 5 PV (M)9,070.329,508.429,963.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)141,537.02148,373.31155,471.24
Equity Value (M)175,847.24183,783.65192,012.15
Shares Outstanding (M)1,219.881,219.881,219.88
Fair Value$144.15$150.66$157.40
Upside / Downside-25.70%-22.35%-18.87%

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