Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad (2836.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.13 - $17.33$14.00
Multi-Stage$26.99 - $29.67$28.31
Blended Fair Value$21.15
Current Price$16.46
Upside28.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-6.45%0.00%0.730.871.090.500.621.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.09%-20.18%118.00%-19.87%-38.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.85%4.71%5.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)358.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)308.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.6644.7826.87
Cash Retained (M)49.4749.4749.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.66-44.78-26.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)-22.194.6922.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.74305.74305.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.020.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.020.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.13$14.00$17.33
Upside / Downside-32.37%-14.98%5.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)358.28354.69351.15347.63344.16340.72350.94
Payout Ratio86.19%86.95%87.72%88.48%89.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)308.81308.42308.01307.58307.12306.65324.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)287.34290.27293.20
Year 2 PV (M)267.34272.82278.36
Year 3 PV (M)248.71256.40264.25
Year 4 PV (M)231.37240.96250.84
Year 5 PV (M)215.22226.42238.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,003.147,367.817,747.51
Equity Value (M)8,253.118,654.689,072.26
Shares Outstanding (M)305.74305.74305.74
Fair Value$26.99$28.31$29.67
Upside / Downside64.00%71.98%80.27%

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