Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nanjing Xinlian Electronics Co., Ltd (002546.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.16 - $159.40$149.32
Multi-Stage$77.23 - $85.11$81.09
Blended Fair Value$115.21
Current Price$5.90
Upside1,852.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.10%4.04%0.120.120.120.120.010.120.120.010.090.10
YoY Growth--0.02%0.01%-0.06%764.67%-88.49%-2.09%807.19%-85.37%-2.77%18.16%
Dividend Yield--2.53%2.80%2.93%2.71%0.36%2.92%2.10%0.28%1.28%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)699.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)498.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.8187.3852.43
Cash Retained (M)498.48498.48498.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.81-87.38-52.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)358.67411.10446.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)834.19834.19834.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.78
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$49.16$149.32$159.40
Upside / Downside733.15%2,430.82%2,601.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)699.03711.77724.73737.94751.38765.07788.02
Payout Ratio28.69%40.95%53.21%65.48%77.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.56291.49385.66483.17584.11688.56728.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)282.42285.22288.02
Year 2 PV (M)362.04369.26376.55
Year 3 PV (M)439.47452.68466.15
Year 4 PV (M)514.75535.48556.83
Year 5 PV (M)587.93617.67648.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,238.9865,387.4068,661.97
Equity Value (M)64,425.5967,647.7270,998.13
Shares Outstanding (M)834.19834.19834.19
Fair Value$77.23$81.09$85.11
Upside / Downside1,209.01%1,274.48%1,342.55%

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