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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.90 - $18.57$15.67
Multi-Stage$21.03 - $23.09$22.04
Blended Fair Value$18.85
Current Price$23.87
Upside-21.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.520.470.400.080.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--10.83%17.13%432.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.06%1.79%1.83%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.4242.7625.66
Cash Retained (M)231.66231.66231.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.42-42.76-25.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.24188.90206.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)187.65187.65187.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.90$15.67$18.57
Upside / Downside-45.96%-34.36%-22.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342.10338.68335.29331.94328.62325.33335.09
Payout Ratio32.28%43.83%55.37%66.91%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.44148.43185.65222.11257.82292.80309.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)134.70136.07137.45
Year 2 PV (M)152.89156.03159.20
Year 3 PV (M)166.00171.13176.37
Year 4 PV (M)174.87182.11189.58
Year 5 PV (M)180.22189.60199.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,137.843,301.233,471.36
Equity Value (M)3,946.514,136.184,333.33
Shares Outstanding (M)187.65187.65187.65
Fair Value$21.03$22.04$23.09
Upside / Downside-11.89%-7.66%-3.26%

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