Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$475.78 - $1,230.87$721.88
Multi-Stage$330.65 - $361.10$345.60
Blended Fair Value$533.74
Current Price$933.64
Upside-42.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.47%65.30%15.094.3410.753.713.372.021.380.460.110.10
YoY Growth--247.41%-59.57%190.02%9.93%66.63%47.06%196.34%326.05%4.33%5.38%
Dividend Yield--1.14%0.76%1.90%0.82%0.64%1.60%0.52%0.27%0.12%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)476.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)328.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.2859.5535.73
Cash Retained (M)328.60328.60328.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.28-59.55-35.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.32269.05292.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.0123.0123.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.1411.6912.73
LTM Dividend per Share6.426.426.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.1411.6912.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.5618.1119.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$475.78$721.88$1,230.87
Upside / Downside-49.04%-22.68%31.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)476.39507.36540.33575.46612.86652.70672.28
Payout Ratio31.02%42.82%54.61%66.41%78.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147.79217.24295.10382.15479.28587.43621.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.12198.99200.86
Year 2 PV (M)242.96247.59252.26
Year 3 PV (M)285.50293.70302.05
Year 4 PV (M)324.90337.40350.25
Year 5 PV (M)361.33378.78396.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,196.976,496.296,807.06
Equity Value (M)7,608.797,952.758,309.38
Shares Outstanding (M)23.0123.0123.01
Fair Value$330.65$345.60$361.10
Upside / Downside-64.58%-62.98%-61.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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