Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.94 - $503.64$193.11
Multi-Stage$66.48 - $72.72$69.55
Blended Fair Value$131.33
Current Price$38.65
Upside239.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS53.36%0.00%0.540.510.470.320.150.061.760.460.000.00
YoY Growth--4.68%9.15%48.78%113.01%134.29%-96.41%281.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.62%2.00%2.20%1.19%0.65%0.41%9.96%2.61%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.947.464.48
Cash Retained (M)49.7649.7649.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.94-7.46-4.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.8242.3045.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.0317.0317.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.482.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.482.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.813.073.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$109.94$193.11$503.64
Upside / Downside184.45%399.63%1,203.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.7163.6067.7372.1376.8281.8184.27
Payout Ratio16.67%31.34%46.00%60.67%75.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.9519.9331.1643.7657.8773.6377.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18.2518.4218.59
Year 2 PV (M)26.1226.6227.12
Year 3 PV (M)33.5934.5535.54
Year 4 PV (M)40.6742.2443.84
Year 5 PV (M)47.3849.6752.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)965.971,012.621,061.06
Equity Value (M)1,131.971,184.121,238.20
Shares Outstanding (M)17.0317.0317.03
Fair Value$66.48$69.55$72.72
Upside / Downside72.01%79.94%88.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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