Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sappe Public Company Limited (SAPPE.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$209.43 - $545.41$511.13
Multi-Stage$80.34 - $87.79$84.00
Blended Fair Value$297.56
Current Price$35.00
Upside750.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.28%9.30%2.181.651.101.010.820.650.680.530.410.30
YoY Growth--31.86%50.47%8.89%22.92%25.76%-4.37%28.63%29.02%37.40%-66.59%
Dividend Yield--6.27%1.85%1.94%3.64%2.88%4.38%3.63%2.25%1.55%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)844.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)693.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)168.81105.5163.30
Cash Retained (M)150.42150.42150.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-168.81-105.51-63.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18.3944.9187.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)307.77307.77307.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.060.150.28
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.060.150.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.192.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$209.43$511.13$545.41
Upside / Downside498.38%1,360.37%1,458.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)844.07898.93957.361,019.591,085.861,156.441,191.14
Payout Ratio82.18%83.74%85.31%86.87%88.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)693.65752.79816.70885.73960.291,040.801,101.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)699.52706.15712.78
Year 2 PV (M)705.20718.63732.19
Year 3 PV (M)710.68731.08751.87
Year 4 PV (M)715.98743.51771.84
Year 5 PV (M)721.09755.92792.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,173.6322,196.3323,258.16
Equity Value (M)24,726.1025,851.6227,018.92
Shares Outstanding (M)307.77307.77307.77
Fair Value$80.34$84.00$87.79
Upside / Downside129.54%139.99%150.82%

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