Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.63 - $148.86$110.33
Multi-Stage$129.30 - $141.80$135.43
Blended Fair Value$122.88
Current Price$70.69
Upside73.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.25%3.10%3.613.613.593.663.703.573.313.082.862.84
YoY Growth--0.06%0.48%-1.80%-1.04%3.62%7.90%7.38%7.56%0.69%6.80%
Dividend Yield--4.58%4.46%4.82%4.03%4.39%4.23%3.74%4.01%4.09%4.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.4510.916.55
Cash Retained (M)33.6333.6333.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.45-10.91-6.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.1722.7227.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.7514.7514.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.101.541.84
LTM Dividend per Share3.643.643.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.101.541.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.735.185.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Fair Value$82.63$110.33$148.86
Upside / Downside16.90%56.08%110.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.2789.1190.9892.8894.8396.8299.73
Payout Ratio61.47%67.17%72.88%78.59%84.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.6559.8666.3072.9979.9487.1492.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)55.4556.0056.55
Year 2 PV (M)56.9058.0359.18
Year 3 PV (M)58.0359.7761.55
Year 4 PV (M)58.8861.2463.68
Year 5 PV (M)59.4662.4665.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,618.991,700.661,785.60
Equity Value (M)1,907.711,998.172,092.12
Shares Outstanding (M)14.7514.7514.75
Fair Value$129.30$135.43$141.80
Upside / Downside82.91%91.58%100.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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