Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$669.63 - $3,936.94$1,233.86
Multi-Stage$405.52 - $442.85$423.84
Blended Fair Value$828.85
Current Price$263.96
Upside214.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS126.78%76.67%13.7326.096.631.440.530.230.060.050.050.05
YoY Growth---47.38%293.29%360.69%172.44%130.91%292.86%7.69%8.33%0.00%7.74%
Dividend Yield--5.20%12.78%2.65%0.91%0.75%0.15%0.03%0.03%0.04%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,756.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,580.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,176.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)951.20594.50356.70
Cash Retained (M)2,176.002,176.002,176.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-951.20-594.50-356.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,224.801,581.501,819.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)240.25240.25240.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.106.587.57
LTM Dividend per Share10.7410.7410.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.106.587.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.8417.3218.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$669.63$1,233.86$3,936.94
Upside / Downside153.69%367.44%1,391.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,756.005,065.145,394.375,745.016,118.436,516.136,711.62
Payout Ratio54.25%61.40%68.55%75.70%82.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,580.003,109.893,697.754,348.915,069.095,864.526,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,852.622,879.652,906.69
Year 2 PV (M)3,111.263,170.523,230.34
Year 3 PV (M)3,356.423,452.773,550.95
Year 4 PV (M)3,588.603,726.613,868.56
Year 5 PV (M)3,808.263,992.204,183.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,708.4384,606.6888,654.12
Equity Value (M)97,425.59101,828.43106,393.84
Shares Outstanding (M)240.25240.25240.25
Fair Value$405.52$423.84$442.85
Upside / Downside53.63%60.57%67.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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